Friday, March 12, 2010

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Buy (1)- An uninspiring session yesterday saw NY close 1 cent higher on low volume, driven primarily by the USD. Macro data from Europe this morning may give some direction as Industrial Production numbers jumped by the most in 20 years. This should help soothe some of the periphery fears and give some strength to the Euro. From a technical perspective, the door is open now for a challenge of the 137 zone in May, with the contract having closed above 133.50 last night. Coupled with a better macro outlook and weaker dollar this should all work in its favour. To the downside, 130 still remains the lower consolidation zone floor; it remains to be seen whether 133.50 can lend any worthwhile support.

Liffe- Neutral- Disappointing volume and market activity in LDN yesterday came as a result of Vietnam stockpiling uncertainty. Amid such a backdrop, it is difficult to gauge any real direction and technically speaking, the last few days trading have not been particularly significant for the chartists. As such, we choose to remain neutral for the time being, noting that any breach and close of resistance at 1280 and 1300 could signal an end to the downtrend and potential medium term reversal. To the downside then, the bears will still be targetting the 1200 support.