Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- The 'C' continues to be dictated by the whims of the greenback and yesterday was no exception. With the macro picture driving things, todays US housing data could be important; otherwise, very little else to report with May continuing to range between the 130 lower border and 135 supply point. We expect much of the same today and thus remain neutral. A breach of either border is needed for any sustainable developments in NY.

Liffe- Buy (1)- Despite predictions to the contrary, LDN is stubbornly hanging around the 1380 level in anticipation of a possible move to the upside. Origin selling has not shown itself despite the steady grind upwards and LDN has remained remarkably resilient to the movements of the USD hinting at further gains to come. Last weeks performance and continuation yesterday will have bouyed the technical outlook and thus we look for more gains today. 1300 appears to be the key upside level with 1280 providing interim resistance; with both levels breached we see little to stop a charge towards 1340. Conversely, a afilure at 1280 and slide downwards today will leave support at 1250 exposed once more.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- The backdrop of a stronger dollar accross nearly all the majors sent NY tumbling on Friday as recent spec longs liquidated and origin joined in the selling. Of late, its seems every time the board makes a sustainable move upwards, it comes crashing back to reality, in effect, mirroring developments in the global macro recovery. While May is trapped in the 130-135 consolidation zone we choose to remain neutral; action is likely to remain muted until later in the week with US retail sales on Thursday and GDP/Univ. Michigan Sentiment indicator Friday.

Liffe- Sell (1)- Despite clawing back some recent losses last week, LDN was unable to make a sustainable break above 1280/1300. Friday saw the market capped due to a resurgent USD and lack of any really 'big' players going long has ensured gains have not been dramatic. Following the failure to breach 1280, we see the prospect of losses likely, ad watch for spec liquidation below 1250. 1200 remains the bear target to the downside and should provide some semblance of support. 1280/1300 remain the supply points.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- NY remains rangebound between the 130 and 133.50 levels. Following last nights FOMC meeting and subsequent pledge to keep rates low, we see the prospect of small gains accross commodity indexes; however, the impact in the 'C' should be relatively muted and with no fresh fundamental coffee data the range in May should remain intact. To the upside, should the 135 area be challenged, this could elicit short covering and trigger stops to 137/138- but don't hold your breath.

Liffe- Neutral- Like NY, LDN appears to be stuck in a range between the 1200 and 1250 levels. The Vietnamese stockpiling rumours appear to have hit a 'sceptical impasse' as traders demand 'evidence' of the plan going ahead. The FOMC pledge should give LDN a semblance of support but not enough to break the current range. We remain neutral for the short-term, and look for a range breakout at 1250 and subsequent challenge of the 1280/1300 resistance zone before abandoning our longer-term bearish outlook.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- A stronger USD and less than encouraging murmurs from China regarding interest rate increases sent the 'C' lower yesterday. However, Despite a brief probe below 130, the bears were not able to keep May below the lower support zone and the contract settled around 131. Today the onus remains on the downside. However, with the FOMC interest rate announcement due this evening, expect volumes to be low as traders pause in anticipation of what Bernanke has to say in terms of future direction. 130 should remain in support while 135 followed by 137 should cap the upside.

Liffe- Sell (1)- Early trading yesterday witnessed further losses as May made a charge for the 1200 bear target. Momentum was stopped short however as LDN recovered from the lows to close only a couple of dollars down. Momentum is still to the downside despite the bear 'failure' and we look for further losses today. The FOMC rate announcement this evening should ensure light volume and keep any movements muted.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- NY failed to hold the 'high ground' on Friday as May closed below the 133.50 stability level despite posting fresh highs early on in the session. Concensus emerged over the weekend that Chinese premier Win Jiabao may take steps to cool economic expansion by raising rates following higher than expected inflation figures. Similar thoughts emerged from India, sending emerging market indices lower overnight. This is bad news for global markets as whole, especially commodities that have risen sharply over the last year fuelled by Chinese expansion. As such, the 'C' should retreat somewhat although the lower end of the consolidation at 130 is unlikely to be breached. 135 will provide a cap to the upside for now.

Liffe- Sell (1)- Upside developments arising as a result of the Vietnamese stockpiling plan appear to have been put on the back-burner for now as LDN resumed its downtrend at the end of last week. Failure to breach 1280/1300 has sent May Southwards as any hopeful longs liquidate and bears re-instate their positions. Developments emerging from China and the East should put the brakes on any upside potential today and as such we return to our bearish stance barring any more Vietnam rumours. Traders are likely to have their sights firmly on 1200 over the next two sessions and it remains to be seen how much demand will arise there.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Buy (1)- An uninspiring session yesterday saw NY close 1 cent higher on low volume, driven primarily by the USD. Macro data from Europe this morning may give some direction as Industrial Production numbers jumped by the most in 20 years. This should help soothe some of the periphery fears and give some strength to the Euro. From a technical perspective, the door is open now for a challenge of the 137 zone in May, with the contract having closed above 133.50 last night. Coupled with a better macro outlook and weaker dollar this should all work in its favour. To the downside, 130 still remains the lower consolidation zone floor; it remains to be seen whether 133.50 can lend any worthwhile support.

Liffe- Neutral- Disappointing volume and market activity in LDN yesterday came as a result of Vietnam stockpiling uncertainty. Amid such a backdrop, it is difficult to gauge any real direction and technically speaking, the last few days trading have not been particularly significant for the chartists. As such, we choose to remain neutral for the time being, noting that any breach and close of resistance at 1280 and 1300 could signal an end to the downtrend and potential medium term reversal. To the downside then, the bears will still be targetting the 1200 support.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- The 'C' couldn't quite capitalise on Tuesdays gains yesterday with the board finishing broadly unchanged. However, sentiment does appear to be changing somewhat as traders discuss upside potential rather than the next leg lower. Despite the failure of May to close above 133.50, there is certainly room for further gains if the USD can give the board a helping hand. The next target once 133.5 is convincingly breached lies at 137-138. To the downside, strong support and the lower end of the current sideways trend lies at 130.

Liffe- Sell (1)- Many commentators are beginning to turn slightly bullish of LDN following Tuesdays rally and an improving technical picture. The stockpiling 'rumours' coming out of Vietnam are certainly making shorts think twice. However, yesterday proved just how difficult it is/will be to completely reverse the downward trend- and on an intra-day basis, we still see the prospect of further falls until the stockpiling scheme gains more substance and we see a convincing close above 1280/1300. The target remains for us at 1200 on the downside, but we'd be willing to mark an about turn should things develop in Vietnam.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- As expected, the Greenback dominated proceedings yesterday, initially causing a sell-off before weakness in the USD going into the afternoon triggered spec buying and short covering above 133.50. However, from a technical perspective, May failed to close above that key resistance at 133.50 despite breaking through, and this will leave new longs unsure of their strength. We see the potential for more consolidation between 130 and 133.50 today (rather boringly) but keep our eyes northward in case of a further push toward 137/138. USD weakness following ex EU commissioner Prodi's comment that Greeces' financial crisis is over and the rest of the region is safe' may have an impact early on but more likely will be discounted as 'noise'.

Liffe- Sell (1)- Initial weakness yesterday turned into strength as rumours began to circulate that the Vietnam coffee association might be serious about its coffee stockpiling plan. Shorts scrambled for cover as specs tried to capitalise on the upswing sending May up $23. Although stemming the recent slide, we don't see yesterdays uptick as having any sizeable ramifications or marking a turnaround in sentiment, and look for a resumption in selling. May will need to break 1300 in order to stem the recent trend and this will require further USD weakness. 1200 is our downside target in the short to medium term.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- Despite weakness in London, NY remained remarkably resilient yesterday and managed to post gains of just under a cent. May continues its' sideways pattern between 130 (which is proving to be strong support) and 133.50. There is little in the way of macro data due for release Tuesday, and so we retain a neutral stance. The USD, although having taken a bit of a back seat of late with the 'C', should dominate proceedings today.

Liffe- Sell (2)- The slide in LDN continues and specs, hedgers and funds continue to sell on the back of the downside momentum. May managed to settle below the technical target of 1226 yesterday, opening the doors to further losses; however, as we plough through uncharted territory with lower contract lows, where this slide will halt is becoming a guessing game and will likely turn due to wider macro developments. With no support of mention to the downside, resistance lies at 1280 and 1300; settlement above the latter required to put shorts in pain.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- Friday presented a rather non-descript day once more despite positive non-farm payroll data supporting the USD. May managed to hold above support at 130, just about maintaining its sideways pattern. We see the prospect of holding above 130 likely once more as comments from Sarkozy gave the strongest hints yet that the EU will in fact support Greece if it struggles to fund its budget deficit, arguing the country was 'under attack from speculators'. This is a positive for the Euro and has seen the dollar fall against all major currencies overnight and investors plough into the 'risk trade'. Below support at 130, the next level is 124. To the upside, resistance lies at 133.5 and 137.

Liffe- Sell (3)- The mood for robusta's remains very firmly to the downside as origin and spec selling continue. Fundamentals also hint to the downside as Indonesian coffee production was reported to have risen sharply. Despite a weaker dollar, very little else lies in the way of further declines and as such we remain bearish. With May having clearly broken the 1250 support, the next technical target lies at 1226, and the likelihood of reaching it today is high. To the upside, resistance is way off in the distance at 1280 and 1300.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (2)- Yesterdays ECB and BOE rate announcements threw up little in the way of surprises yesterday with both central banks reiterating their current stance. Stocks rallied accross the board following a US report which said jobless claims dropped from a 3 month high, defusing concern that the US recovery is slowing. The USD rallied, inevitably affecting NY 'C' to the downside. The months highlight of US Non-farm data should shed more light on the state of the job market, what the global recovery hinges on. May held just above support at 130 at settlement last night; we expect another challenge today with a stronger USD. A close below 130 will open the door to 124. To the upside, 133.5 and 137 remain the resistance levels.

Liffe- Sell (2)- LDN struggled yesterday following Wednesdays close below the 1280 trigger and a stronger greenback. Amid light volume and lack of buyers, May slid below key support at 1250 before bottom pickers lifted it slightly to settle at 1249. Technically speaking, this should lead to more programme selling, although profit taking by shorts may provide a floor. We see further losses in the short to medium term then, but look to the USD for further guidance. Resistance lies at 1280, 1300 and 1335, but there is little prospect of any of these levels being challenged today.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- Yesterday heralded a stronger Euro as positive news regarding Greeces rescue plans filtered through the market. However, unimpressive volume in the 'C' left May to settle slightly below unchanged. The tight range between 130 and 133.50 continues, and we see much of the same occurring today. The ECB and Bank of England rate announcements are out today, and this should provide the focus for the USD and commodity markets as a whole. Above 133.5, the next resistance remains at 137. To the downside, a break of 130 would open the doors for a challenge to wards 124.

Liffe- Sell (1)- LDN continues to flirt with the 1280 zone, and yesterday was no different. The market closed up small on the back of low volume as deliveries for March continue. LDN, like NY, is very much in a sideways pattern at the moment, with traders showing very little interest to buy or sell in volume. However, in the medium term, the trend points downward and as such we look for further losses today (albeit small ones). 1300 and 1335/40 remain the upside targets; to the downside, look to 1250 as support. We do not envisage any particular fireworks today unless the BOE or ECB spring some kind of surprise.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- Another non-descript day in NY as traders looked towards the USD, with the board closing just above unchanged. Today could provide more of the same, as Greece pledges $6.6 bil more in budget cuts to appease its EU neighbours in their support. This should weigh on the dollar and perk up the Euro, possibly lifting the 'C' slightly. In terms of data, figures to watch in the US are the ADP employment numbers and ISM non-manufacturing this afternoon. May levels; 130 and 124 to the downside, 135 and 137 remain as resistance.

Liffe- Sell (1)- LDN continued its journey to the downside yesterday with the board closing down around $15. Weakness appears to attract more traders despite the stability seen over the last few sessions. Position rolling has provided much of the flow as we enter delivery period. With May unable to hold above 1280 or attempt a close above 1300, this momentum should continue towards 1250. To the upside, 1300 and 1335 remain the bulls' goal.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- Lack of volume was the defining characteristic yesterday and the board closed relatively unchanged despite a big rally of the greenback against nearly all the majors. May remained within the current range of 130 to 133; and with a lack of macro data today, we expect this trend to continue in the short term. Levels to watch today then are 130 and 124 to the downside; to the upside, look for resistance at 133 and 137.

Liffe- Neutral- Despite USD strength yesterday, May manged to close $10 up for the day and hold above the 1280 level. This should add support to what is effectively a 2 month downtrend. Further closes above 1300 are needed to stabilise the market further but significantly, 1335 will need to be broken to turn sentiment north. To the downside then, look for support at 1280 followed by 1250.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- Once more, it can be noted that coffee is being driven primarily by the USD rather than physical market fundamentals. Fridays rally was helped by the weaker dollar as the Euro attempted to claw back ground. As we look to May, the market has managed to climb above the stability zone at 130, thus halting the decline for now. Below here could see a fall to 124. To the upside, demand should be capped at 133 then 137.

Liffe- Neutral- Shorts were squeezed on Friday aided by month end rolling lifting Mar/May somewhat. As we look to May, The contract has clambered above the 1280 stability zone, and aided by a weaker dollar, momentum might continue to give the market a lift. The next hurdle to overcome is 1300, a break and close here giving longs a breather and maybe a further short squeeze. A break of 1335 remains the target to set sights northward. To the downside, support lies at 1250.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- Stormy seas of late in NY were becalmed somewhat yesterday as ICE 'C' managed to close small up for the day. However, we see this as little more than restbite pending further losses. The macro picture worsened somewhat Tuesday as German consumer confidence dipped, followed by the US consumer confidence measure which continued the trend. EU periphery fears continue to weigh on the market, and the momentum remains firmly to the downside as traders await the next leg lower. We look for a challenge in the short term of support at 128.50 and further, 123. To the upside, 135 should keep a lid on things.

Liffe- Sell (1)- May teeters 'on the brink' in LDN as it seems the whole of the spec community has been jumping onto the current downtrend and daily weakness with all guns blazing. Looking at the open interest and listening to market commentators, the system short position is now at one of its highest levels this year and this looks unlikely to change in the short term as macro developments weigh on the market. Although LDN took a breather yesterday from Mondays slide, we see the prospect of more weakness today, especially should May close below 1250. To the upside, we need a close above 1280 to give longs any form of hope and before shorts start to think about liquidating.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (3)- Inevitably, currency movements were the main driver of the 'C' and commodity markets in general. USD strength in the morning led to a lower 'C', followed by afternoon weakness in the USD culminating in a higher NY. The pattern looks set to continue today in terms of currency 'domination', albeit to the upside in the dollar and downside in NY. This follows last nights decision by the Fed to increase the overnight deposit rate by 0.25% to 0.75%, sending an explicit signal to the market that the emergency supply of liquidity to the markets is done and the aggressive monetary easing cycle looks set to reverse. Historically, the discount rate has been used as a psychological tool in sending signals to the market of future monetary policy direction; and it was something the market has been warned about recently by Bernanke but the shock was in the timing- sooner rather than later. Inevitably, the greenback reacted positively against the main basket of currencies sending the EUR/USD to recent lows. In light of this, we see the only way as down for NY today and remain bearish. Levels to watch on the downside are 130, 128.5 and 123. To the upside, 135 looks to be strong resistance in March.

Liffe- Sell (1)- More of the same for LDN as the USD coordinated proceedings Flow was rather limited in the outrights with most volume arising from the switch. Sentiment appears to be to the downside still as even USD weakness into the afternoon couldnt lift the board much higher than unchanged and origin sellers remained like a cloud over LDN. Following the cut in the discount rate, we retain our bearish stance and see more weakness resulting in the short term. Levels to watch remain 1280, 1300 and 1315 to the upside. Support lies at 1250.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- The USD was the main driver of proceedings yesterday and this does not look set to change today. A woeful day for Europe Wednesday as the UK unemployment disappointed, and further details emerged in Greece regarding a certain investment bank helping massaging its deficit and mislead investors. The latter sent the cat amongst the pigeons once more, further damaging confidence in the Euro and evoking angry reactions from EU members, particularly Germany. It seems at the moment, the EU wants to show that it is behind the peripheral countries without having to put its money where its mouth is. Something must come to a head sooner or later. Euro weakness was excaserbated further as US housing data surprised to the upside and the FOMC minutes revealed the Fed was debating how to unwind some of its housing stimulus measures. Ice 'C' didnt react quite as negatively as might be thought, but the fact that these problems have been around for a few weeks now is watering down their impact. That is not to say however that it is not having an impact at all; last weeks up-swing has been reversed its seems and the possibility of March creeping above the 135 stability point unlikely. We look down then towards support at 128.50 and envisage a challenge here once more in the short-term. Pending a close below there, 123 becomes the next downside target.

Liffe- Sell (1)- Like NY, Ldn is dominated by the dollar (again) and macro developments in the EU. The switch appears to be where the majority of volume is centred, although it seems that some of the Mar/May strength is beginning to wane; possibly due to system funds having finished the majority of rolls needed to be done. We look for further weakness today accross the board and set our sights in March now towards 1250 following the close below 1280. 1300 should provide some sort of a cap to the upside should the USD weaken.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- The Euro rallied from 9 month lows yesterday as the EU spelled out a tougher stance to Greece with regards to its budget deficit and efforts towards reducing it. Bond holders fears were quelled somewhat reducing the spread between Greek and German government issues thus propelling the market and commodities upwards. NY didnt react quite as positively as the holiday hangover weighed on volume on both sides of the pond, with March closing up three quarters of a cent. This morning, global equities opened higher as the earnings season continued and better than expected results were posted. In light of this, we see the possibility of further EUR strength and USD weakness. However, following yesterdays underperformance in the 'C', fireworks are unlikely. The 135 level is becoming more and more important as supply caps any notable gains and keeps sentiment relatively bearish. With lack of decent volume, we retain our neutral stance; the majority of volume is likely to be made up of rolling down the board as first notice day approaches on Thursday. Levels to watch out for on the upside are 135 and 137.5. Resistance lies at 130, 128.50 and 123.

Liffe- Sell (1)- Ldn couldnt capitalise on gains made accross the commodity spectrum yesterday with March settling at unchanged. Spread activity dominated proceedings as Mar/May firmed even more to around the -30 level. This could well continue looking forward and some traders are looking for gains around the -25 level with rumours of a large fund long looking to roll around 4000 lots in the next week or so. In the outrights, 1280 remains a relatively key level in March and should provide the basis for another leg lower should the contract settle below. 1250 would be the next level of support if the 1280 level was to go. On the upside, with supply mounting, resistance lies at 1310 and 1350.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- Following yesterdays market holiday, NY finds itself firmly in the middle of what looks to be sideways consolidation. For now, the upper boundary appears at 135, while the support lies at 128.50. With the market almost completely driven by the USD at present, we choose to remain neutral pending tomorrow evenings FOMC meeting minutes. This should provide us with some sort of dollar direction as market participants get to grips with the future Fed rate outlook. Were the consolidation zone to be breached to the upside, 137 is your next supply point. To the downside, below 128.5, 123 is the next important support level.

Liffe- Sell (2)- LDN suffered a further slide yesterday on light volume amid the US holiday. The switch provided the main turnover as players continue rolling into May as first notice day in March approaches. Tet in Vietnam is now in full swing, and despite the US back to business, volumes should remain light. Although it is unwise to draw conclusions on days such as yesterday, the downside pace is certainly accelerating, and a close in March below 1280 should increase the pace as such; 1250 then becomes the next target. To the upside, March would need a clear break of 1350 to turn the current direction on its head, but in the current climate, this looks unlikely.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- Yesterdays meeting of EU leaders regarding Greek fiscal woes lifted the market initially in the hope that a solution would be thrashed out. However, as is often the case with these things, the accord that was reached disappointed (buy the rumour, sell the fact), and the Euro subsequently faltered. Statements by European leaders left open how the EU will respond to a fresh wave of speculative attacks against Greece or countries such as Spain and Portugal, which are also struggling to cut budget deficits. Despite the dollar gaining strength into the afternoon, the 'C' regained its composure closing a little under unchanged. As the market drifts sideways (halting the recent slide), one must wonder which direction it will take next. In all likelihood, with NY closed on Monday for Presidents day, we see the prospect of some profit taking (albeit cutting losses on the recent highs) and a resulting slide. It is unlikely many traders will want to be left holding long positions over the extended weekend. The switch should dominate proceedings once more, and this is where the action will be, as specs jump on board the firming spread. Resistance can be found today at 135; to the downside, your supports are 130, 128 and 123.

Liffe- Sell (1)- Unlike NY, LDN managed to finish slightly higher yesterday but the move on the back of positive global macro sentiment lacked any real volume and conviction. The range in March remained tight, and held steadily between first resistance at 1315 and support at 1290. Although, with a stronger dollar and question marks over the Greek bailout plan, selling today is unlikely to be spectacular and mostly driven by the switch. We see LDN lower overall, and with this in mind, look for a convincing close below 1290 in order to resume the downward momentum. To the upside as mentioned before, 1315 followed by 1350 are your supply points- the former gaining in importance as the market consitently fails to make a solid break above.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Buy (1)- Volumes were well below average yesterday. Mar/May were predominantly driven by the switch as we edge closer to first notice day; and it was the switch on light volume that pushed the market up to close nearly two cents in positive territory. Overnight, the global macro picture improved as Australian unemployment fell, European leaders meet to thrash out an aid package for Greece and Chinese inflation unexpectedly slowed. Latterly, the Chinese number is good news, as it suggests that inflation in China is not getting out of hand. As such, we shouldn't see aggressive tightening in credit conditions in China, allowing the global recovery to continue. What this all should translate to in the short term is some further relief accross commodities as a whole, global equities and a weaker dollar. As such, we see potential for further gains in NY today, dependent of course on a weaker USD and no negative macro surprises emerging from the woodwork. Resistance remains stubborn in the front month at the 132.50 zone, followed by 135.50. To the downside, support remains firm at 128, while 123 is the next level some way down.

Liffe- Neutral/Buy (1)- We were surprised somewhat by Ldn yesterday, which greatly underperformed NY's positive clawback. Most likely, this can be attributed to very low volume, the majority of which was made up of AA's and the switch. Specs appeared to be noticeably absent from proceedings, thus rendering global macro developments relatively impotent. As a consequence, we choose to remain neutral today despite positive developments appearing overnight. However, that being said, the risk today is most likely to the upside, but this is dependent upon volume and general interest. Resistance lies at 1315 followed by the stability point at 1350. To the downside, 1290 followed by 1250 are your support levels.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- The commodity markets' main driver, the USD eased yesterday, and as a consequence, should have offered a little restbite from the prevailing downtrend. However, rather unexpectedly, NY struggled to capitalise, and any move into positive territory lacked real conviction and noticeable volume. This morning, stocks rallied worldwide as the prospect of German aid for Greece reassured investors that perhaps there is indeed light at the end of the tunnel; the German finance minister hinted that aid may extend beyond guaranteeing loans, positive in that it is the first real indication that Greece will not be left to fend for itself amid the crisis. Had this comment come over the weekend, we would certainly see it as bullish for the 'C'. However, following yesterdays lack of followthrough to the upside on the weaker dollar, we choose a neutral stance in NY today. To the upside, resistance remains at 132.5 and 135. Support for today lies at 128 and 123. 130 is likely to play its part as options expire today (Wednesday).

Liffe- Buy (1)- London closed more positively than NY following yesterdays USD retreat but its performance was noting extraordinary as volumes remained light. Most likely, the majority of volume came from spec flow as roasters and origin kept to the sidelines. With Tet approaching in Vietnam and the futures price at such low levels, we see this trend continuing for origin players in the short term. Following the German finance Ministers' commitment to aid Greece in a 'bailout' of some form, and yesterdays outperformance of NY, we see the prospect of further gains (albeit small ones) in Ldn. Dependent on the USD, gains could extend to first resistance in March of 1315, followed by 1330. On the downside, support remains at 1250 with 1300 the key trigger.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- Yesterday saw somewhat of a relief rally in NY and commodities in general as a weakened dollar lifted the board following mutterings about the EU periphery; and plans to halt a slide into further ratings downgrades. This seemed to encourage traders who collectively breathed a sigh of relief following the recent downtrend. Most likely, specs looking for a correction joined the party helping to lift the board yet further as the greenback slid. In terms of the 'C', the trend is still pointing downwards and technically speaking, March needs a strong correction above 138 if it is to set Northwards in earnest once more. We see the possibility of yesterday being 'a dead cat bounce' and remain bearish, albeit less confidently. The dollar is driving the market still and as such any further coffee weakness will be explained in terms of dollar strength. To the upside, March should remain capped below 132.5 and 135. Support lies at 128 and 123.

Liffe- Sell (2)- LDN weakness was the theme for Monday morning as robusta did not react positively to dollar weakness on the opening. The trend is firmly downwards on Liffe and this would go some way to explaining the fact that March scraped back to barely unchanged in the afternoon despite a promising performance accross the pond in the 'C'. Traders appear to be un-swayed by greenback 'noise' and clearly see further losses in the short-term. With this in mind, we remain bearish, but, like in NY, the dollar will have its' say. Support lies at 1250, the bears next target. To the upside, 1315 and 1330 should slow down any potential advance.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (3)- With the market being driven from macro trends rather than coffee fundamentals, Friday saw losses once more as a result of greenback strength. The commodity complex as a whole is suffering from this recent upside trend in the dollar and for the time being, this looks likely to continue. Jobs data was mixed and cancelled each other out; non-farm weakness came in combination with an improvement in the US unemployment rate. EU periphery woes continues to be reported in the press in the weekend and this is likely to be at the forefront of traders minds today. In terms of Euro weakness then and potential dollar strength, we see the prospect of further losses in the 'C'. To the downside, support lies at 128, 126.5 and then 123. To the upside, 130 followed by 132 should provide an upside cap.

Liffe- Sell (3)- Losses continued Friday as specs probed for stops below 1300. The dollar momentum appears firmly set and, as in NY, we see Liffe under pressure once again. March closed on 1295, important support, and in the absence of any positive fundamentals, the contract is unlikely to breach 1295/1300 today. To the downside, 1250 is the next talked about support level.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- Following the dollar has been the order of the day of late and (rather boringly), it was the greenback that set the tone yesterday as March 'C' was unable to make any sustainable gains, settling down 2 cents for the session.We see the prospect for more of the same today as macro developments lead the global markets; as Greece teeters on the brink of bankruptcy, its future in the hands of the ECB or further, the IMF, the European community holds its breath. Yesterdays apparent acceptance by the European Commission of Greeces pledge to lower its budget deficit to under 3% by 2012 lifted the Euro- we will need more follow-through today and dollar weakness on the whole to lift the commodity complex significantly. Resistance lies at 133 and 135; with the trend firmly set downwards, a breach of both levels is needed to ensure a break of 130 and resulting freefall is not realised. We remain bearish unless there is a close above the former. Below 130, next resistance lies at 128 then 123.50.

Liffe- Sell (1)- The board has lacked volume of late and yesterday was no exception as the majority of spot month activity was driven by the switch. March now finds itself reasonably settled in the low-mid 1300 range, and without meaningful involvement from market players, this trend looks set to continue in the short term. The lower end of the range appears to be demand arriving at the 1315 level, resistance and healthy supply coming in at around 1350. What LDN needs it seems is some large movement in the greenback or important macro developments to rekindle spec and fund interest; developments that are not forthcoming at the moment. Amid the circumstances, we choose to remain bearish, if anything following the January trend. Resistance appears at 1350 followed by 1400 1380 0and 1400/1425 (key). To the downside, 1315 and 1295 (key) are support.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- Volume in NY has been lacklustre over the last few sessions and this was especially evident yesterday in early trading. As the dollar took a hit, so did the 'C' (amongst commodities as a whole), with March falling to as low as 137. However, into the afternoon buying picked up, but it was not enough to stem the downward tide thus leaving March et al over a cent down on the day. We see further declines likely accross the board today, but as a cautionary tale, certified stocks are at a 7 year low, highlighting the demand for spot coffee. As we near the end of month and looking ahead to first notice day in March, perhaps this will lend some semblance of support to the market. To the downside, support now appears at 137, followed by 135 and 133. To the upside, 140 looks to be important, and the market will need a close above here going into month end if it is to prevent further long liquidation.

Liffe- Sell (1)- LDN followed NY lower yesterday as it too suffered from disappointing volume. The greenback was the overriding driver as early USD strength led to a wave of selling on the opening that was only recovered somewhat late in the afternoon prior to settlement. The momentum appears to remain on the downside, although lack of interest has probably halted any significant moves; technically speaking, on such low volume, it is difficult to make any meaningful conclusions as to future direction. It is clear however, that for the next few sessions at least, the dollar will play its part, and so long as March remains below 1400/1425 going into month end, the trend is rooted firmly south. Support remains at 1320 and 1295; supply at 1380, 1400 and critically 1425.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- As has been so often the case, yesterdays' session can be described in terms of the USD. The greenback was on the back foot in morning trading as the Euro rallied after the news that the demand for Greece's 5-year bond offering was reportedly four times more than the government had reckoned with. However, it does not seem to be that much of a surprise given that the 'good fortune' came at a price of a 6.5% coupon payment. Perhaps the market took note of this later on as the dollar bulls sniffed blood (and the fact Greece's public debt is expected to reach 120% of GDP next year). NY followed suit with morning gains reversing in the afternoon and March finishing just below unchanged. Importantly, March closed below the 140 trigger and this indeed leaves the market still exposed to the downside. Following a disappointing UK GDP first estimate, coming in below forecasts at 0.1%, we see potential for further USD gains and 'C' market weakness. To the downside then, support resides at 138.50, 135 and 133. To the upside, 140 is a key settlement resistance level followed by 142.5.

Liffe- Sell (1)- LDN experienced an aggressive opening to the upside as stops were seemingly uncovered (possibly spec driven) and March climbed $25. However, the move was seemingly over before it even began as the board fell $10 in a heartbeat and origin interest had its claws out. Following the disappointing UK GDP first estimate and associated stronger dollar, we see potential (again) for a move to the downside. Yesterday, LDN failed to hold on to any noticeable gains built over the last few sessions, and with the important 1400 and 1425 levels quite a way off in the distance, it would take some brave longs to re-enter the market. To the downside, support can be found a little way down at 1320 and then 1295. To the upside, 1400 and 1425 remain the key supply points.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- NY has suffered at the hands of a strengthening USD for the past week but Friday saw a turnaround with the 'C' staging a small recovery and closing up just under a cent. The talk of the market this year has been the pressure experienced by roasters to cover their 2010 commitments on the back of strengthening washed coffee differentials and a reasonably bouyant terminal market; last weeks decline will have given them some relief as they were able to buy the term and average on the way down. Technically speaking, NY is still fairly weak and we see the possibility of another fall back towards the mid 130's. However, the greenback is likely to play its part and any notable fall in the dollar will lend some support to the coffee market. Resistance then can be found around the 140 zone, 142.5 further up. To the downside, key support remains at 135 and 133.

Liffe- Neutral- Fridays short squeeze took us by surprise somewhat as Ldn, bouyed by a falling dollar and rally in NY climbed and closed $33 up on the day, erasing much of last weeks losses. March managed to close above the important 1350/60 level and this could provide some rest-bite from the current downtrend. A weakening dollar is likely to lend some support and may even encourage some tentative longs. However, in the mid to long term, a challenge and close above key resistance at 1400 and most notably 1425 is required for a more sustainable push Northwards. We remain neutral today noting support at 1320 and 1295.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- NY continued its slide yesterday as 140, once support in March, has become fairly strong resistance and kept a lid on the spot month. The greenback, conversely, is enjoying a continued run of strength, and this has all but halted any attempt for the 'C' contract to claw back losses. In the short term then, with no rest-bite heeded in Europe (overshadowed by Greece et al and problems therein) or elsewhere, this trend looks set to continue and some analysts are calling for the Euro- Dollar at 1.35. With the market capped below 140 for now, and next reliable support at 135, we see the likelihood of further losses in the coming week and retain are bearish strategy; 'the trend is your friend' has proved itself time and again in the 'C' and for now any buying to catch the rebound is much akin to catching a falling knife. Below support at 135 comes 133- a close through here could send March reeling all the way back to the high 120's.

Liffe- Sell (2)- Like NY, Ldn continues to lose ground, and for now, there does not seem to be much chance of it halting. Having plundered through support at 1340, the next reliable support lies at 1295- the 2009 low- and this could be put very much under pressure in the coming week. If 1295 were to be breached, we expect violent stop triggering and long liquidation, and where March goes from here is anyones guess. With Vietnam still looking good crop-wise, the pressure is certainly on and we remain bearish. Levels, as indicated already: support resides at 1315 (weak) and 1295 (key). To the upside, March should be capped at 1340 and 1360.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- Despite brief gains to the upside yesterday, NY failed to make any inroads as it battled against a stronger dollar and reasonably strong resistance at 142.50. Perhaps discouraged by the failure to peak resistance, weakness attracted spec liquidation and pushed the board back to around unchanged before more sellers jumped on the bandwagon to push March towards Fridays lows. Failure to breach 142.50 following Fridays aggressive sell-off is likely to keep ICE 'C' on the back foot today as longs re-assess and look to the dollar for inspiration. We remain bearish and look for a break below 139/140; this then opens the way for losses to 135.50. To the upside then, 142.50 will need to be breached before traders look to get long once more.

Liffe- Sell (2)- March failed to make any noticeable headway above 1380 yesterday confirming many traders opinion that the only way is down in the short term. Low volume was the order of the day, the bulk of which was made up of AA's, and this was possibly the reason for lack of any discernable movement. In light of no further market developments, we see the prospect of further losses today, despite the market only closing down $3 in the last session. The dollar is beginning to look reasonably strong, particularly against the Euro which is getting battered on all fronts; this should all work in the bears favour. March then should remain capped under 1380, the first target on the downside being 1360. Once breached, this opens the door for looses to 1340 and 1295 (key).

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Sell (1)- Following yesterdays market holiday, nothing in the way of fundamental or macro data was released in order to cause any sizeable correction today. As we described in our report yesterday, the January momentum appears to have come to an end, for the short term at least, and March teeters above support at 138/139. The challenge now is for ICE 'C' to launch another assault of resistance around 146 and then the 2009 high of 149.50 can be contemplated once more. Until then, we are bearish below 142.5 and look for further downside action.

Liffe- Sell (2)- Yesterday was somewhat of a non-event as volumes were disappointingly low on the back of the US holiday. To draw any conclusions from yesterdays price action would be futile and as such we remain bearish and look for losses below 1380. Key technical resistance levels remain at 1400 and 1425, and a clear break is needed of both to avoid somewhat of a retracement of Januarys' gains. To the downside, support lies at 1360, 1340 and 1295 (key).

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- CLOSED- NY gave back a large part of Januarys' gains on Friday as dollar strength and origin selling triggered stops below the 142.50 level. The upward momentum then has certainly been curbed in the short term and it will be interesting to see what the week holds in store as March lies just above resistance at 138; a dip through here could send the contract tumbling with lots of stops likely below the 135 and then 133 support levels. NY is closed today for the US Martin Luthor King annual holiday but will re-open as usual tomorrow.

Liffe- Sell (1)- Following Fridays fall on the back of USD strength, we adjust our outlook to sell. Crucially, despite impressive January gains, the market couldnt breach key resistance at 1425 following a number of attempts. Technically speaking this was a bearish indication, a 'quadruple top' having been formed, but following days of sideways action last week, it was on Friday that the sellers came to the market in earnest. We look now towards 1360 support, with 1380 and 1400 providing resistance and inevitable supply. Despite some downside momentum, working in LDN's favour is the current physical market situation where there is a lack of flow of new coffee and tight differentials leaving certs. looking attractive. It will be interesting to see how the situation develops in a month or so as we get towards first notice day in March. Volume should be reasonably light today due to the US market holiday.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- Volume was reasonably low yesterday and the day choppy with no real identifiable pattern. What is apparent however is that there is clear interest around 143 in March, as any dip towards here over the last week has met with fairly robust demand. Talk of nearby demand in the physical market is most likely the driver as shorts look to cover their commitments. In light of the last few sessions, we refrain from strategy today, noting support at 143 and 138 and resistance at 146 and 148.5. ICE 'C' is closed on Monday for the US Martin Luthor King Day.

Liffe- Neutral- The market was capped once more in March as sellers knocked values back below 1400. As March drifted back towards the weeks' lows, the 1380 support did its job, and spec interest dragged it back towards unchanged in the afternoon session. We expect more of the same today as traders wait for any significant action around support at 1380 or resistance at 1425. US Dec CPI is released today, any surprises likely to influence the dollar. In light of this, we retain our neutral stance noting the aforemention support and resistance and waiting for a breach of either to dictate our next move.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Buy (1)- NY managed to consolidate and continue the upward path that was started on Friday. A weaker USD aided the move and March was able to close above a notable supply point at 145. We see the possibility of further gains in the near-term, as short-term specs are encouraged by the close above 145 and attempt to jump on the bandwagon. The ECB interest rate announcement announcement and press conference may give traders some food for thought as any resulting EUR/USD moves could influence ICE 'C'. Resistance stands at 148.5 and 150; to the downside, 142.5 and 138 are your supports. 145 will be todays key level to watch.

Liffe- Neutral- Ldn was caught in a very tight range yesterday as volume remained though and traders appeared to be disinterested. March failed to close above the important 1400 pivot which could prove to be an important development. If the market is to sustain the rally, a decisive break of 1425 is required before longs begin to liquidate and short specs smell blood. As such, we decline to suggest a strategy today; however, the market has begun to feel heavy this week following the failure on Monday to breach the 1425 zone and so we are beginning to turn bearish. Resistance then appears at 1400 followed by 1425. Support lies at 1380 followed by 1360 and 1315.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Buy (1)- A reasonably quiet day in NY yesterday as the market traded within a very narrow range. The bulk of the flow was dictated by the USD which reacted negatively to Alcoa's poor results kicking off the earnings season and the Chinese decision to raise bank reserves, prompting fears that Chinese demand may decrease as a result. We retain our bullish stance today if only on the expectation of further falls in the greenback; with nothing in the way of macro data or fundamental news of note, we await the ECB rate decision and press conference tomorrow for hints as to further USD developments. Resistance appears now at 145 followed by 148.5 and 150/151. Support resides at 142.5 and 138.

Liffe- Neutral- Volume was fairly light accross the board yesterday as LDN managed to recoup some of Mondays losses. However, March remains capped at the important supply point of 1400; and with positive news coming out of Vietnam regarding the flow of coffee, there is a real possibility of it holding here in the short-term. As such, we choose to remain neutral today, awaiting a clear break of 1400, and most importantly, 1425 before embarking on a bullish strategy once more. Like NY, we see a reasonably tight range of between 1380 and 1400 in the coming days. Resistance then lies at 1400 and 1425. To the downside, we see support at 1380, 1360 and 1315.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Buy (1)- NY enjoyed gains early on yesterday, spurred by the weaker dollar anf Fridays encouraging close. The Fed's Bullard added fuel to the greenback shorts as he said that interest rates may remain low for some time. This was followed by the Atlanta Fed's Lockhart who reiterated this suggesting the US rebound will require low interest rates until it shows momentum. Futures reflect an 8% chance of the Fed raising its target overnight rate to 0.5% in June, down from a 47% likelihood 1 month ago. However, the rally was short-lived, pushed lower by spec sellers who managed to uncover stops (most likely from other specs) on the way down, aiding the move lower. Today we remain bullish despite yesterdays set-back, as long as March holds on to gains above 142-143; a dip through Fridays gains could be a signal of weakness to come. Resistance remains at 148.5 and 150. To the downside, we see support at 143.50-142 and 138.

Liffe- Buy (1)- Aided by NY and the weaker dollar, LDN gapped higher on the opening to capitalise on last weeks gains. However, traders were unable to maintain the momentum as the 1425 resistance zone lurched into view and with it, attracted enough origin selling to put on the brakes. This was then aided by reports of increased origin selling in Vietnam. The fact that London has failed and turned lower after reaching this key resistance at 1425 (for the fourth time) does not send positive signals to the market. However, further dollar weakness today and subsequent breach of 1425 could help it on its way to 1500 sooner rather than later. As such, we remain bullish today (although not quite as confidently), and note support at 1360, 1315 and 1295. Our target remains as a close above 1425.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Buy (2)- The US non-farm payroll data on Friday disappointed analysts by completely undershooting even the most pessimistic of forecasts. The markets knee-jerk reaction to the data was a sell-off in equities, a bond rally and dumping of the greenback, all contributing to the rally seen in ICE 'C'. However, it then became apparent to market participants that the US stimulus programme will likely have to be prolonged, and following that line of interpretation, stocks were then bought and bonds sold; the dollar however, remained sold, and 'C' remained on the front foot. As expectations that the FED will hike rates have been shifted further into the future, the likelihood that the greenback will gather momentum in its' decline looks strong, highlighting the fickle nature of todays market. As such, we see potential for further gains accross the board and note the 145 zone as a critical one. Specs have driven March over 145 on the back of this dollar slump and subject to it being able to hold above this level at settlement today, the onus really is on the bulls taking firm control. 148.5 is the next target on the horizon, while 145 and 141 are the nearest supports.

Liffe- Buy (2)- Ldn continued its' recent run of strength on Friday following the disappointing payroll figures and dollar decline. March managed to close on our key resistance level of 1400, and this should serve to encourage further system buying and short covering. Pending further dollar weakness today, March looks set to challenge the 'triple-top' at 1425 as momentum reverses now to the upside. A break here, and 1500 becomes the next upside resistance target. Support lies at 1380 followed by 1360, 1315 and 1295. This 1400 level is likely to serve as the main focus early on though as the shorts cling on.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- A quiet day yesterday in NY as the dollar regained some ground and the commodity complex as a whole stalling, ICE 'C' struggled to make headway. Most likely, the thin volume comes pending todays Non-farm and US unemployment numbers, arguably the key events of the month. Following Decembers improved numbers, analysts and traders are looking for further gains and an indication that the US remains on track for a better 2010. Although positive numbers will equate to an improvement in risk-appetite, this may not necessary relate to gains in 'C'- the dollar has not been sold of late as a risk play as traders get to grips with yield implications- as such, if the greenback is BOUGHT on a better number, this may well cap any possible rally in NY. As such, we remain neutral today awaiting the post-number flurry. Support remains at 139/140 and 135.5. Resistance lies at 142.6, 146.5 and 148.

Liffe- Buy (2)- On the whole, Ldn has managed to outperform NY this week and yesterday was no exception as robusta's remainbouyed by the tight physical situation and perceived undervaluation. Alas, March remained above 1380 and traders will be eyeing first resistance now at 1400 and further strong supply at 1425. Today could be key to unlocking the doors to the upside following the US unemployment numbers, and with all eyes North in Ldn and analyst expecting better figures, we see the likelihood of more Liffe gains. To the downside, support lies at 1360, 1315 and 1295. Resistance then lies at the aforementioned 1400 and 1425 levels.

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Buy (1)- NY struggled to match Ldn's enthusiasm yesterday as the range remained tight and gains limited. The Brazilian Real played its part as it strengthened against the dollar capping the 'C' but the market did find fresh interest as prices dipped towards the 140's. Despite lack of volume (and interest), NY looks set to hold onto recent gains in the short term as physical availability and large industry shorts keep the market supported to the upside. The 140 level should provide support then near term as traders position themselves for a further assault on december highs; at the moment, only a rapidly strengthening dollar will send the market dipping aggressively southwards once more. Supoort then will be found at 139/140, followed by 136 and crucially 133. To the upside we see resistance at 146.5 and 148.

Liffe- Buy (2)- London put in a reasonably impressive performance yesterday and managed a close above first resistance at 1380. Speculative longs appeared to drive the market perhaps looking for a near term challenge of the elusive 1425 area. Today the recent downtrend will pass through 1489 which may provide somewhat of a cap; 1400 looks to be stronger resistance however and will need to be convincingly overtaken to give players the impetus to challenge 1425. Support appears today at 1360, 1315 and 1295. Resistance abounds at 1389, 1400 and 1425 (key).

Daily Coffee Market Outlook

NY- Neutral- Following the festive break, Mondays rally appeared to take traders by surprise as shorts scrambled to cover and funds continued their average buying. Yesterday came as a disappointment then as ICE 'C' failed to continue the rally and stalled at the top of Mondays' intraday range, drifting back to close almost 1 cent lower. The dollar will likely be a key driver of the market looking forward to the next week or two in setting a tone for the commodities markets as a whole. Its weakness on Monday, coupled with higher oil driven by the cold snap accross the USA and Europe looks like it will be a temporary phenomenon; most commentators now are calling for further gains in the Greenback as the balance of power shifts to the US and yield considerations come into play. With this in mind then, we feel Mondays rally may have just been a flash in the pan. Resistance looks fairly strong at the 50% fib retracement (142.65) coupled with the 20 day moving average (142.50). In the short term then (at least until non-farm unemployment numbers on Friday), we see March capped at resistance while maintaining a tight range between here and support at the 139 area.

Liffe- Neutral- Ldn struggled yesterday alongside NY as the market lacked momentum to capitalise on Mondays' gains. Disappointingly, March failed to close above the 20 day moving average at 1365 to give traders the impetus for an assault of key resistance at 1380. Without a close above the latter stability hurdle, the downward pattern looks set to continue. 1315 followed by 1295 are the next support levels. Resistance, as mentioned, resides at 1365, 1380 and more crucially, 1425.